Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
