A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
